Spandex plants’high operating rate may reduce and the launch of new spandex units may be postponed with pressure from cost and inventory. As a result, spandex companies may reduce purchasing PTMEG and hold bearish view toward feedstock price tendency.
Around 90% of demand for PTMEG is from spandex field in Chinese mainland. Demand for spandex may be in stagnation as downstream plants are expected to shut down for the Spring Festival holiday intensively from Jan. The operating rate of spandex plants may reduce by that time after price close to cost line, which will end up with shrinking purchasing volume of PTMEG at the beginning of 2022. The production and sales tempo of PTMEG market is estimated to be disrupted and may cause short-term supply competition on PTMEG market.
The bullish support on PTMEG industry is expected to weaken at the beginning of 2022 amid weaker demand from fabric mills and unbalanced supply and demand on spandex market. Price of PTMEG is likely to be pressed by that time.
At the beginning of 2022, PTMEG suppliers may face pressure from falling price if they choose to guarantee good sales and may witness mounting stocks if they hold price firm.
The price spread between PTMEG and its major feedstock, BDO, has been near 7,000-9,000yuan/mt. The profit of PTMEG is limited after taken the processing fee into account. BDO-PTMEG industry has high integration. Companies enjoy strong profitability with high profit of BDO and profitable PTMEG. Some suppliers may prefer to ensure sales volume when it is profitable, while demand may be hard to have bullish support in short run. Suppliers are likely to have diversified views toward short-term price tendency.
Seen from the long term supply and demand relationship, the effective capacity ratio of PTMEG and spandex will see multi-year new low in 2022.
The effective capacity ratio of PTMEG and spandex is expected to reduce to near 83% in 2022. As around 90% of demand for PTMEG is from spandex sector in Chinese mainland, PTMEG market is estimated to be tight-to-balanced in 2022 and supply may be even tight during peak season. In general, supply of PTMEG is estimated to enjoy bullish support within 2022.
From Chinatexnet.com
Post time: Dec-22-2021