Around Spring Festival holiday, the rise of crude oil spurred polyester industrial chain from polyester feedstock, PSF to polyester yarn. However, this round of rise brings different changes to PSF market and polyester yarn market.
1. Polyester yarn inventory is low, lending support to the smooth increase in price after the holiday.
During mid-Dec to early Jan, polyester yarn price kept low. With intensive export orders placed and downstream pre-holiday restocking, the product inventory of polyester yarn was reduced quickly, down from 17 days to 3 days and the traded prices at that time prevailed within 11,800-12,300yuan/mt. As the price moved up and restocking finished, the inventory started to accumulate, but only a small increase as most spinners shut down and suspended production for coming Spring Festival. Currently, the inventory only reached 6 days, a low inventory that gave polyester yarn much confidence to rise and stabilize later. By comparison, direct-spun PSF fell back to pre-holiday level after rushing up high.
2. Direct-spun PSF will be burdened by high inventory and high operating rate
During Spring Festival holiday, direct-spun PSF plants maintained running at a rate of 67%, and by mid-Feb, the run rate improved to 85%. In the same period, the inventory rose to 14 days from 4 days and the price rose from 7,000yuan/mt and 7,700yuan/mt. But the spike of direct-spun PSF triggered cautious purchasing of downstream spinners as they still had raw materials stocks for about 15 days use at hand and on the other hand, downstream market did not recover as well as upstream. In Feb, direct-spun PSF fundamentals showed weakness and the inventory will keep accumulating.
During Spring Festival holiday, direct-spun PSF plants maintained running at a rate of 67%, and by mid-Feb, the run rate improved to 85%. In the same period, the inventory rose to 14 days from 4 days and the price rose from 7,000yuan/mt and 7,700yuan/mt. But the spike of direct-spun PSF triggered cautious purchasing of downstream spinners as they still had raw materials stocks for about 15 days use at hand and on the other hand, downstream market did not recover as well as upstream. In Feb, direct-spun PSF fundamentals showed weakness and the inventory will keep accumulating.
3. The market remains to be observed amid unclear end-user demand.
Downstream fabric mills are restarting intensively now. The mills reported lack of orders in general with high inventory, which may affect the process of their production resumption. The market trend remains to be observed.
In conclusion, polyester yarn spinners now face better situation than direct-spun PSF plants. As long as the raw materials do not slide continuously, polyester yarn will keep slightly volatile in narrow range without pressure. At present, polyester yarn is mainly held by traders, and current price is about 1,000yuan/mt higher than that they bought in Dec. Even so, as downstream plants restart increasingly, traders will obtain profits more or less. For polyester yarn spinners, the trades will be dull in the second half of Feb. The demand will show up until the stocks at traders’ hand are consumed to a certain extend. Considering current end-user demand, it may come in early Mar at the earliest.
Post time: Feb-24-2022