Currently, the arrivals of seed cotton in India are obviously lower than previous years and are hard to increase apparently, which is likely to be restrained by the 7.8% decline of planting areas and the weather disturbance. Based on current arrivals data, and historical cotton production and arriving speed, and the factors that the picking time may be delayed, 2021/22 Indian cotton production is likely to decline by 8.1% compared with last season.
1. Low arrivals of seed cotton in India
According to AGM, by Nov 30, 2021, the arrivals of seed cotton in India totaled 1.076 million tons, up 50.7% from the corresponding period of last season, but down 14.7% from the six-year average. Viewed from the daily arrivals, the data has shown weakness.
Based on the weekly, monthly and yearly changes in the arrivals of seed cotton during the same period of previous years, the current arrivals were obviously low. If combined with the Indian cotton production given by Cotton Association of India in the past seasons, it is preliminarily estimated that the arrivals of Indian cotton are about 19.3%-23.6% of the production. On concern about the delayed harvests time, 2021/22 Indian cotton production is projected at about 5.51 million tons, a fall of 8.1% from last season. This year, Indian cotton prices hit multi-year high and growers have seen large increase of benefits, but the arrivals of seed cotton is still hard to increase obviously. The reasons behind it are worthy to be probed into.
| Cumulative arrivals of seed cotton in India (unit: tons) | ||||
| date | Cumulative arrivals | weekly change | monthly change | yearly change |
| 2015/11/30 | 1207220 | 213278 | 686513 | |
| 2016/11/30 | 1106049 | 179508 | 651024 | -101171 |
| 2017/11/30 | 1681926 | 242168 | 963573 | 575877 |
| 2018/11/30 | 1428277 | 186510 | 673343 | -253649 |
| 2019/11/30 | 1429583 | 229165 | 864188 | 1306 |
| 2020/11/30 | 714430 | 116892 | 429847 | -715153 |
| 2021/11/30 | 1076292 | 146996 | 583204 | 361862 |
2. Lower planting areas and weather disturbance drag down production
According to AGRICOOP, cotton planting areas are estimated to decline by 7.8% year on year to 12.015 million hectares in 2021/22 season. Except for a slight increase in Orissa, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, other regions witness a decline.
| Indian cotton areas, by Oct 1 | |||
| 100,000 hectares | 2021/22 | 2020/21 | Change |
| Andhra pradesh | 5.00 | 5.78 | (0.78) |
| Telangana | 20.69 | 24.29 | (3.60) |
| Gujarat | 22.54 | 22.79 | (0.25) |
| Haryana | 6.88 | 7.37 | (0.49) |
| Karnataka | 6.43 | 6.99 | (0.56) |
| Madhya pradesh | 6.15 | 6.44 | (0.29) |
| Maharashtra | 39.57 | 42.34 | (2.77) |
| Odisha | 1.97 | 1.71 | 0.26 |
| Punjab | 3.03 | 5.01 | (1.98) |
| Rajasthan | 7.08 | 6.98 | 0.10 |
| Tamil nadu | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.08 |
| All India | 120.15 | 130.37 | (10.22) |
In addition, cotton crop planting and development was damaged by the weather. On the one hand, excessive rainfall was poured on the crops during the intensive planting period in July, and later, the rainfall was obviously less in Aug. The distribution was uneven. On the other hand, the rainfall in the major cotton producing regions of Gujarat and Punjab was obviously low, but that in Telangana and Haryana was excessive, which was also uneven on the geographic position. Moreover, extreme bad weather appeared in some regions, affecting the crop development and yield.
Under the impact of lower planting areas and weather disturbance and based on the current seed cotton arrivals and the historical data of cotton production, a yearly drop of 8.1% for 2021/22 Indian cotton is within a reasonable range. Meanwhile, despite of a high seed cotton price, the arrivals are still hard to improve apparently, which reflects that the constraints of the decline in planting area and weather disturbances on Indian cotton production this year.
Currently, the arrivals of seed cotton in India are obviously lower than previous years and are hard to increase apparently, which is likely to be restrained by the 7.8% decline of planting areas and the weather disturbance. Based on current arrivals data, and historical cotton production and arriving speed, and the factors that the picking time may be delayed, 2021/22 Indian cotton production is likely to decline by 8.1% compared with last season to be 5.51 million tons.
From Chinatexnet.com
Post time: Dec-13-2021